Derby, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

176
FXUS63 KICT 301743
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1243 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler below average temperatures through Monday

- Very high ire danger is expected on Tuesday afternoon across much
  of the area.

- Another round of showers and storms for Tuesday night with
  periodic chances late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Some lingering morning showers and perhaps an isolated storm could
impact southeast KS before a stable post-frontal regime becomes
established as we move through the day. Breezy northerly winds will
usher in more seasonable temperatures with highs in the 50s and low
60s. Similar conditions are anticipated across the area as we move
into Monday with light northerly winds becoming southerly from west
to east as we move through the day with a continuation of more
seasonable temperatures.

A more robust mid/upper trough is progged to dig into the Central
Great Basin/Central Rockies on Tuesday. A lead wave is progged to
eject over the Central Plains late in the period allowing deeper
moisture to surge northward into eastern Kansas. We are also seeing
very strong flow through the column. Time/height X-sections of wind
and mixing layer height suggest the potential for 50-60 knot wind
gusts on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night and values were trended
higher. There remains some potential for severe storms Tuesday night
across eastern Kansas as the deeper moisture is juxtaposed with
steep lapse rates and 70+ knots of deep layer shear.

A Pacific front will usher in much drier and stable air on Wed with
mild temperatures anticipated.

Thu-Sat...We continue to see a persistent western CONUS trough late
in the week which may result in unsettled weather across the Central
Plains. Multiple rounds of showers and storms will remain possible
through the period with seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Low clouds will continue to linger through the mid afternoon
hours in the MVFR category across the area, however they should
begin to scatter out with only mid-high level clouds streaming
in overnight. Winds will remain out of the north and on the
light side as surface high pressure builds southward across the
region along with VFR conditions for tonight/Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Above normal temperatures combined with very strong southerly winds
will result in a very high fire danger Tuesday afternoon across
central and south central Kansas. The persist southerly winds will
allow minimum relative afternoon relative humidity to remain above
40 percent for much of the area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...MWM